Thursday, December 13, 2012

Looking For A Pause In The Action

The markets are mixed in early trading after yesterday's rally faded.  The Fed came thru with their version of QE4 as many had expected.  The markets, which were already up on the day, extended their rally a bit but as we headed into the close sellers emerged and stocks began to fade.  By the close the market had given up almost all of its gains.  This increases the likelihood that after a multi-day advance the market is due for a little breather.

In corp news, Best Buy (BBY) is bouncing again on news that founder Richard Shultz is expected to submit a bid to take the company private.  This rumor has been swirling for months, but this time around the CFO also just bought 100,000 shares.

CVS is also trading higher after raising its dividend as well as full-year guidance.  CIEN is also a bit higher despite missing earnings and issuing cautious Q1 guidance.

In economic news, November retail sales rose +0.3% vs. last month's -0.3% reading.  But excluding autos retail sales were unchanged.

Asian markets were mixed overnight.  China was -1.0% lower after an analyst at Commercial Bank of China suggested additional stimulus was unlikely due to rising property price concerns.

European markets are mostly lower after Eurozone ministers approved the next tranche of Greek aid for 49 billion euros through March 2013.  I'm sure in March we will be hearing about the "next" tranche of aid that needs to be approved.  What happens when Spain comes to the trough?

Commodities are mostly lower despite weakness in the dollar index again.  I would have thought more QE would be bullish for gold, but the yellow metal is lower today back below the $1700 level.  Silver and copper prices are also lower.  Oil prices are roughly flat near $86.76.

The 10-year yield is higher again up to 1.72%.  And the volatility index is flat near the 16 level.

Trading comment: Yesterday's downside reversal in the market usually portends further weakness in the near term as it represents some exhaustion among buyers.  I would look for a further pullback in the indexes, but the S&P 500 could find support at its 50-day average, which now sits near the 1415 level.  AAPL remains stuck in this trading range between 520-550, but GOOG is breaking above its 50-day average and could find some running room.

KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL and GOOG


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