Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Gold Can't Rally Despite Weaker Dollar

The dollar has been weaker for the past 2 days but gold hasn't been able to rally at all.  Two days doesn't make a trend, but normally gold responds positively to dollar weakness.  The inability of gold to rally recently has some gold bugs questioning their bullish thesis, Dennis Gartman among them.  Technically, gold has still not been able to break the downtrend that started last October.

There isn't any market moving economic data to speak of today.  Overnight, Asian markets were mostly higher, at least the ones that were open.  China and Hong Kong remain closed for the Golden Week holiday.  Japan rose 1.9% after reporting that household confidence rose to 43.3 (vs. 40.5 consensus).

European markets are also generally higher.  The corruption scandals in Italy are heating up.  And the ECB Vice President said G-20 nations should commit to letting their currencies float freely.

Earnings season is slowing down, but a few stocks rising on earnings today includes: KORS, FOSL, and MAS.  KO is trading lower after reporting.

The 10-year yield is up a bit today to 1.97%.  It has been consolidating around that 2.0% level since late January, which leads us to believe we could see another push higher in the near future.

The volatility index is roughly flat near the 13 level, still a low absolute level that indicates traders aren't looking for a big market move in the short-term.

Trading comment: The stair-step market continues.  The market rallied strongly on Friday, and so far today for a second day is merely consolidating those gains in a quiet fashion.  Today financials are leading the action while tech takes a back seat.  AAPL is weighing on the tech sector after Tim Cook presented at a conference today but didn't give the sort of details some were hoping for.  He said he was serious about returning cash to shareholders, but didn't specify whether the dividend would be raised or buybacks would be stepped up.  He also hinted at the possibility of a cheaper iPhone, but didn't unveil anything. 

KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, KO


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