Thursday, August 29, 2013

Stocks Bounce On Positive GDP Revision

Stocks are higher again in early trading, despite continued tensions in Syria.  Today investors got a positive piece of economic data in the form of a positive revision to Q2 GDP figures.  Initial estimates were for growth of 1.7% but the revised figure shows growth of 2.5%.  Not bad.

Asian markets were mostly higher overnight.  India rebounded 1.7% on a bounce in the rupee.  In Australia, home sales fell -4.7% last month.

Europe's markets are also higher today.  Eurozone retail PMI rose to 50.3 from 49.5.  And Spain's GDP slipped -0.1%, in-line with expectations.

The 10-year yield is roughly flat today near 2.78%.  It was higher earlier but has since eased back to unchanged on the day.

The volatility index is another 2% lower but still trading above the 16 level.  We would lean towards the notion that as long as the VIX stays above 15 it increases the likelihood of another selloff in stocks in the near-term.

Oil prices are showing a bit of weakness and trading down near $109.25 despite Syria.  This is weighing on stocks in the energy sector.  Gold prices are also lower today, trading down to $1405.  It could be that some of the safe haven trade is coming off and profit taking from the recent runup in gold prices.

Trading comment: Trading volumes continue to run very light, but that isn't stopping the market from enjoying a nice bounce in early trading.  It's still early though, so we will have to see if this strength can last into the close.  We still think there is likely another move lower in stocks, but we would look to use upcoming weakness to start to put cash back to work into equities.


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