Friday, October 04, 2013

No Payrolls Report Today

Stocks are bouncing a little bit in early trading.  Today should have included the release of the monthly jobs report, but due to the govt shutdown the September payrolls report has been delayed.

Outside of that there isn't much in the way of corporate or economic data.  Potbelly's (PBPB) went public today and is up huge.  I used to love these sandwiches when I lived in Chicago, and hope they expand to the west coast soon.  Also, Twitter filed for its IPO, but we haven't seen any other details about the offering yet.

Asian markets were mixed overnight.  China remained closed for the Golden Week.  The Bank of Japan met and maintained its policy stance.  One governor commented that a prolonged shutdown or debt ceiling impasse in the US could have a severe impact on global markets.

Europe's markets are higher, led by a continued bounce in Italy.  The head of the European Stability Mechanism said he expects Greece to require a third bailout package.

Commodities are mixed.  Gold prices are lower near $1310 while copper prices are higher.  Oil prices are also higher to $103.85.

The 10-year yield is up today near 2.64%.  We are still looking for rates to normalize further into year-end and get closer to that 3.0% level again, maybe as taper talks for December renew.

The volatility index is lower today near the 17.2 level, but this is still a bit elevated relative to the recent trading range for the VIX over the last several months.

Trading comment: The S&P 500 is struggling with holding its 50-day support.  There is also a lot of headline noise right now from Washington.  Further impasses with regards to the debt ceiling will likely knock stocks lower, but one positive headline about an agreement could be met with a big relief rally.  So we continue to pick away at weakness and add to equity exposure as we think the markets will still be higher into year-end.


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