Friday, December 30, 2005

Syneron gets smacked

Shares of Syneron (ELOS) have gotten smoked in the last 2 days. Last night, CIBC downgraded the stock saying they thought it would be difficult for the company to match consensus estimates.

The analyst lowered his estimates for the quarter, acknowledging new competitors that have entered the field. But he also stated a number of new growth drivers for 2006.
This morning, Merriman defended the stock, saying that their checks show that most quotas have been met, and that the quarters are historically back-end loaded.

Management raised guidance in November, so a miss now would mark a big turn down. Regardless, the stock seems to be oversold even factoring in a slight miss. It is trading at less than 15x 2006 estimates, a large discount to its peers. This despite the fact that ELOS has the highest margins, best balance sheet, and probably the safest patent portfolio of the group.

Given that short interest has been running at 20%+ of the float, could this be an example of a very successful 'bear raid' on the stock at a time when no one is around to defend it? Just askin'

long ELOS

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