Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Quick Sentiment Check

The sentiment indicators are mixed so far.

  • The NYSE ARMs Index is running low at 0.96 (neutral)
  • The ISE Sentiment Index is at 204 (showing bullishness)
  • The CBOE put/call is at 1.01 (showing bearishness)
  • The volatility indexes (VXO/VXN) are both higher

While the high put/call ratio might help support the market from plunging further, it is unlikely that the market is going to make much headway with bond yields spiking. The 10-year is now up 10 basis points to 5.08%, providing a stiff headwind.

And to the fellow who e-mailed me earlier, I sure am glad I didn't short NTRI into earnings! The company trounced estimates and the stock is up 32%. Wow.

3 Comments:

At 8:03 PM, Blogger TJQuill said...

I'm there for you, I just wish I had owned a little more NTRI over the last three weeks.

My next pick (I'm not productive enough for my own blog) is ISV - look for at least a double by the end of the year, and it could do that by the end of the quarter. Has a drug that will become the defaut Rx for pinkeye as soon as it is approved - and approval is a no-brainer as they are just combining two drugs that have already been approved. NDA will go in before the end of the quarter, and partnership with a large pharma will be announced in that same timeframe.

 
At 7:38 AM, Blogger J. Kahn said...

Congrats on the NTRI.

I usually don't play the single digit stocks much. Too much volatility for my tastes. But keep me posted. Do you work in the healthcare industry?

 
At 3:37 PM, Blogger TJQuill said...

Play is exactly right - small biotechs are what I do with my vegas money, I'm convinced that everything will be cured over the next two decades and these are the stocks that will be the ten baggers if you can pick out the cream. Much more headroom on a single digit stock than a mid or large cap.

My real money is safely tucked away in Vanguard index funds - the tech crash taught me a lesson that I won't ever get over.

My current baby biotech list:
ISV
HNAB
MHA
NVD
CELG (mid cap, but lots in the pipeline so room to grow despite current PE)
VQPH.OB

I'm not a doctor, but I sometimes play one in southbay bars...

 

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