Monday Morning Musings
The market has opened under a bit of pressure, which is likely a follow-through from Friday's late day weakness.
Oil is trading higher on the news that BP will shut down its Prudhoe Bay facitlity due to corrosion issues. They said this will impact roughly 400,000 barrels. Already there is talk from OPEC as well as the U.S. strategic reserve to step up so that no shortage is felt.
Most of the energy issues are trading higher, though not by any dramatic amount. Most of the other sectors are down so far, expect the homebuilders which are bouncing slightly. HANS disappointed a bit, and the stock is getting whacked.
Bond yields are hovering around 4.92%. Tomorrow is the big FOMC meeting. While a pause is almost assured now, if you go by the fed funds futures, the reaction is still far from certain. Often, the market will react strongly in one direction after the announcement, but then trade in the opposite direction in the days that follow. Stay tuned.
I am still looking for what the leadership group is going to be out of this latest market malaise. Any ideas out there?
posted by J. Kahn @ 7:13 AM
2 comments
2 Comments:
I think a pause tomorrow will open up the doors for more talk of the R word, which should spur more movement into defensive names. Not to sound cliche, but I think consumer staples and utilities will be the next leaders. That being said, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the FOMC raises another 25bp tomorrow and says that they are done in the statement.
I think if the Fed raises tomorrow, then they have gone too far. I think they should definitely pause now.
While the immediate reaction is hard to guage, since there could always be a "sell the news" type response, having the Fed out of the way will remove a considerable overhang from this market.
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