Friday, March 09, 2007

Jobs Report Quells Recession Fears

The market got a nice bounce in early trading, after the nonfarm payrolls report showed an increase of 97,000 jobs (100,000 consensus). And the January payroll figures were revised higher, continuing a series of positive revisions that makes it likely that February's figures will also be revised higher next month.

This data was stronger than the whisper numbers on the Street, and should quell some of the recession fears that have surfaced lately since Greenspan started spouting his opinions in the media. Doesn't he have better things to do now?

Since this morning's initial bounce, the market has given back all of its early gains. And you wonder why I am distrustful of up opens in the market? We still have a long way to go, so the market could come back. But Friday's aren't known as being big up days in the market.

The strong employment data caused a big spike in bond yields, with the 10-year jumping to 4.57%. This could keep a lid on stocks. The Yen is lower for a 2nd day vs. the dollar, so this shouldn't be a big factor. And oil is also slightly lower, hovering around $61.50.

Semis were strongest out of the gate this morning, so maybe tech can outperform today.

1 Comments:

At 4:19 PM, Blogger Louis said...

I am not sure if gov. data like today really has anything to do with stock markets, other than short term hiccups, or better yet appearance of a hiccup, so to speak...

Recession or not, what I see around sure looks like many things are braking with skidmarks. Receivables are piling up for companies cut the check slower & slower, complete default is increasing, and companies at the other end are getting impatient & overly bitchieee.

I see less open house signs on Saturday not because all those houses were sold, but sellers are sick of meaningless ritual of cleaning, prepping & not selling. So they pulled out of the market with hatred of their idiot realtors(they think..). Now they are turning into market timers. Did housing market bottom? Sure, in theoretic assesment of mapping is almost done, I guess. But it seem the real action of real people who live in them hasn't even started yet. Hack, they are barely realizing that scary possiblity, just about now.
So they become a market timer of real estate market, waiting for the price to come back to their entry point. So, as I see in the stock market, real bottom will be here when everyone is dumping, abandonning, or jumping out of it's window...
So I see a major flow in stock market theory, things are discounted for 6 month ahead... Rather, it seems market moves at the stage of conceptualization, moves more at confirmation, moves more with additional confidence builder...

This is what I think, average Joe... So never mind...

Every 5 % of price drop, we are getting 3 month worth of net-loss sellers adding on...

 

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