Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Bears Leverage FOMC Statement

The FOMC released the minutes from their last meeting, and the bears used it as a good opportunity to step up the selling pressure on the market. Remember, the market was overdue for a pullback anyway, so this is just the news that is breaking with the cycle.

Here is a summary of the FOMC comments:
  • Fed minutes still project economic pickup later this year
  • Fed says the increase in subprime mortgage delinquencies could slow recovery in housing sector
  • FOMC says housing demand 'leveling out'; no subprime spillover
  • Fed minutes say persistence of inflation at recent rates could eventually have adverse effect on economy
  • Fed says labors markets remain 'relatively tight'
  • Fed minutes say all FOMC members agreed predominant policy concern remains inflation
  • FOMC says data have cast doubt whether inflation on downward path
  • Fed says due to growth, inflation uncertainties, their statement no longer solely cites chance of more firming
  • FOMC says downside economic risks increased between Jan and March
  • FOMC dropped the words "additional firming" from statement amid 'increased uncertainty'
  • Fed minutes say FOMC agreed 'further policy firming' might be needed to foster lower U.S. inflation

The market sold off further on the comments about inflation, which I fully expected. The selling has caused many of the sentiment indicators to spike higher on the day. To wit, the VIX is spiking +9%; the ARMS Index is above-average at 1.17; and the CBOE put/call is elevated at 0.97.

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