Thursday, July 05, 2007

Flight-to-Safety Bid Leaves Treasuries, Pushes Yields Higher

As I suspected, there wasn't a hint of terrorist activity over the July 4th holiday. So the bid that had been in the Treasury market is waning, and that is helping push bond yields higher. The 10-year is currently near 5.10%.

Oil is also trading higher, pushing above $72. On the plus side, earnings for the energy complex should be strong again. On the negative side, the combination of higher oil and higher bond yields will likely take some of the wind out of the sail of the stock market.

There was more M&A activity, with Blackstone (BX) making a $26 billion bid for Hilton Hotels (HLT). The stock is up +27%. HUN also got a higher bid ($6.3 billion) from Apollo. And KKR has decided to follow in Blackstone's footsteps and file for an IPO.

Asian markets were mostly higher, with S. Korea and Hong Kong reaching new all-time highs. But China went the other direction, in a big way, falling -5.25% overnight, on top of a -2.15% drop the day before. That's a big 2-day plunge, and I am surprised it didn't cause more of a spillover into other markets.

AAPL and GOOG are both surging to new highs this morning, while higher rates are weighing on the financial complex.



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