Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Is This Just An Oversold Bounce?

The market is getting a sizeable bounce at the open, but is it just an oversold bounce? Most likely, but let's see how the day unfolds before we jump to any conclusions.

AMZN reported strong numbers, but not this strong. The stock is up +25% likely on a flurry of short-covering, as short interest in the stock remains high. Boeing (BA) also reported strong results, boosting its stock.

Asian markets were lower overnight, led by declines in oil companies in Japan, Australia, etc. Bond yields continue to slide on the weakness in the housing and credit markets. The 10-year is down to 4.91%. And oil is trading up a bit, near $73.85.

If you wished you had more cash on the sidelines during yesterday's schmeissing, then use bounces like this to do some selling. I believe the concerns in the credit market, in addition to the all out assault by the bearish macro funds, will result in more downside in the weeks to come. I am still bullish, but believe a better buying opportunity awaits.

1 Comments:

At 9:17 AM, Blogger Untiedshu said...

Schmeissing? Nice Yiddish.

It looks like today KKR and Chrysler couldn't sell $10+ billion bond issues, credit spreads are widening, and the 10-year yield is higher than it was 6-months ago. Are we going to start seeing private equity and overlevered companies get priced out of acquisitions due to excessive financing? Is KKR's inability to sell a debt issue a sign that deals will either slow or fall apart completely? Could this be the end of the private equity floor that we've seen on low-quality stocks?

 

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