Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Financials Weigh On Market, Energy Stocks Buck Weakness

The market was flat most of the day, but a late day sell program knocked things down pretty hard into the close. The financials were weak all day on rumors that banks were going to have to raise more capital amid the ongoing credit crunch.

Energy and materials stocks bucked the weakness today, and soared despite crude oil prices declining on the day. Oil finished below $134, near the same levels it has closed at for the last 3 days. The longer oil hovers up in this area, the more I worry about another spike higher to new highs.

Ag stocks were again on fire, after comments in the industry about fertilizer shortages persist. MOS surged +5% today, and I took partial profits on my trading long. Natural gas stocks also had a very strong day, and continue to act as market leaders.

Investor angst was high all day. The ARMS Index closed at a high level of 1.25; the put/call ratio was also above average at 1.00; and the VIX was up slightly to 21.13.

The dollar was a bit lower today vs. the Yen and the Euro. And the 10-year yield was also lower at 4.22%.

Overall, I think the market is setting up for another push higher. I am looking to add long exposure on further weakness. Buy the dips, sell the rips continues to be the motto for trading success.

long MOS

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