PPI Shows Nascent Signs of Deflation

The market is trading higher in the first hour, after Hewlett-Packard issued upside Q4 and 2009 earnings guidance. The strength for them is surprising, but welcome nonetheless. Home Depot also reported better-than-expected earnings. On the downside, Corning (GLW) expects its Q4 sales to be below guidance, citing the weak retail environment.

In economic news, the October PPI fell -2.8% month/month, larger than the -1.9% consensus. There were some large decreases in the report, indicating some early signs of deflation. This is likely a global phenomenon, which makes further rate cuts by central banks increasingly likely.

Treasury Secretary Paulson, Fed Chairman Bernanke, and FDIC Chair Blair are all testifying before Congress about the TARP plan. I reiterate that I think the disappointment that I am hearing with the Plan is short-sighted. These big fiscal plans take time.

But in the short-term, I think they have helped. We don't have a different financial institution each day that we are worried about it going under, and its stock falls -40% in a day reflective of the worries.

Yahoo (YHOO) CEO Jerry Yang is finally out after the many missteps he has made managing that company, including rejecting Microsoft's $47.5 billion buyout offer. The stock is higher on the news.

Asian markets were lower overnight. The Yen is also lower today, which should help the markets. Oil is flattish near $55. The 10-year yield is lower at 3.62%. And the VIX is a touch lower at a still very high 68.

The market feels like this rally could hold, but as we have seen lately, the last hour of trading is the only thing that counts.