Oil Continues To Fall, Benefitting The Consumer

The market is hovering near positive territory in early trading, while oil continues to fall to new lows. The lower prices at the pump, in heating oil, and for transportation companies like airlines definitely benefits the consumer, even as it might not feel that way.

GM denied it has resumed merger talks with Chrysler, while the White House said that it is moving closer to an announcement regarding the automakers. The govt. mentioned the notion of a managed bankruptcy in their press release, which has some thinking their announcement could have a little surprise twist in it.

In corporate news:

• FedEx topped earnings expectations and reaffirmed its 2009 outlook
• Nike also topped expectations, and the stock is moving higher
• Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) is also moving higher after boosting its 2008 outlook
• Ingersoll Rand (IR) lowered its Q4 outlook, and the stock is slightly lower
• MEMC Elec (WFR) also lowere its outlook, and the stock is getting hit by -10%
• Equity Residential (EQR) is also down -10%, though it looks like the only news is an analyst downgrade

Asian markets were higher overnight, led by China and India; the dollar is mixed, while the Yen is sharply lower amid rumors that the Bank of Japan could cut rates; oil is down near $38.50; the 10-year yield is back down to 2.09%; and the VIX is plunging another -6.8% all the way to 46.5, a nice sign.

Trading Comment: More pieces of the puzzle continue to fall into place for a year-end rally. The S&P 500 is above its 50-day average for the third day; after Tuesday's big spike higher, the market pulled back yesterday in lighter volume, a good sign; and the VIX has fallen convincingly below the 50 level, and a new downtrend is developing (bullish for stocks).

I put some money to work yesterday, and will continue to add on weakness.

long SSO