Friday, October 30, 2009

Month End Not Helping Stocks In Early Trading

My colleague Doug Kass at is fond of saying this market has no memory from day to day. This is very true today, after yesterday's nice bounce is starting to look like a one-day affair.

The Chicago PMI came in better than expected at 54.2 (vs. 49.0 consensus), but that did little to improve sentiment. This is a strong reading, and hopefully an indicator of better readings to come out of the manufacturing sector.

The real driver today seems to again be the US dollar. Its funny but lately all you have to ask is if the dollar is higher or lower on the day to know how the rest of the market is faring. Today, the dollar is bouncing, which is weighing heavily on stocks and commodities. Oil is back down to $78, while gold is lower near $1041.

Among sectors, financials are down the most (-3.05%), while consumer staples are holding up relatively well (-0.30%). International ETFs are also giving up much of yesterday's gains.

Asian markets were higher overnight, seemingly pleased by the strong GDP report here in the U.S.; the 10-year yield has moved lower to 3.42%; and the VIX is +8.3% higher today to 26.82, bouncing off its 50-day average that it tested yesterday.

Trading comment: This is shaping up to be a disappointing last day of the month, but I stand by my comments from yesterday. The market is still oversold, and likely due for more of a bounce. The price action and volume characteristics of that bounce should give us a better idea of how long this correction will last. Right now, the bears are pressing their bets.


At 2:16 PM, Blogger Celal Birader said...

yes we are pressing :-)


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