Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Bullish Sign That FedEx Raises Guidance

The market is struggling in early trading, despite what is usually a positive sign - FedEx raised guidance last night. CFO Alan B. Graf Jr. said in a statement that the improved forecast is due to better-than-expected growth in international volumes as well as the continued benefits of cost control programs.

"Year-over-year growth in our U.S. overnight express and FedEx International Priority services increased each month during the quarter, aided by inventory restocking and our successful sales efforts," said Graf. "Demand for our international services has improved significantly since the first quarter, particularly in Asia and Latin America."

But with the dollar bouncing again for the 5th day, which is weighing on commodities, stocks are heavy in early trading. Oil has traded down to $73, while gold is down again and has fallen below the $1150 level.

European bourses were lower this morning, after Moody's said that the U.S. and the U.K. must prove that they can trim their deficits in order to avoid a possible downgrade to their triple-A ratings.

Asian markets were also mostly lower overnight; the 10-year yield is lower to 3.73%; and the VIX is +4.6% higher to 23.13, but still below its 50-day average.

Trading comment: The S&P 500 traded down to the 1090 level this morning, which is the level it closed at on 11/27, the day the Dubai debt problems shook global markets. This level is just minor support, with the 50-day average coming into play around the 1080 level, if we get there.

My colleague Helene Meisler at TheStreet.com pointed out that we used to look at Goldman Sachs (GS) as a "tell" for the market. But when GS stopped rising, we then started to look at Apple (AAPL) as the "tell". But now AAPL is faltering also. You could say we still have Google (GOOG), but without the former two stocks leading the market, you have to agree that rushing in to buy at this juncture might not be prudent.

Leadership seems to be narrowing, and I simply want to take more of a wait and see approach. New leadership could resume at any point, I just don't want to jump the gun. As usual, I hope my cautiousness is misplaced.



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