Monday Morning Musings

The market opened on a down note this morning, but it attempting to bounce as of this writing.

There hasn't been much in the way of market moving headlines so far today. The Empire Manufacturing index was a little light at 7.1 ( vs. 7.5 consensus), but that is up from last month's reading of 5.1.

Buyers seems to be rushing into Treasuries and gold for the most part. Gold prices are up near $1223, while the rise in bond prices have pushed yields down to an astounding 2.59%. I have held off adding to my inverse bond etf (TBT), but at this level of yields I think it is very attractive again.

The euro is bouncing after last week's selloff, which is coming at the expense of the dollar. Oil prices are down a bit to $75.

Asian markets were mixed overnight, with China bouncing +2.1%. And the volatility index (VIX) is slightly lower at 26.0.

Trading comment: The S&P 500 continues to hover below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That, in and of itself, warrants caution. But shorter-term, the market is once again oversold after last week's selloff and likely to bounce. I want to remain defensive when the market is trading below these key moving averages, so I will be looking to use any strength to exit marginal positions, and probably add to some hedges to protect portfolios against a further pullback in the market.

long TBT