Tuesday, January 04, 2011

2010 Blog Poll Results

The S&P 500 closed last year at 1257, and the winner of our annual In The Money poll was LakeView Asset Management's Scott Rothbort. Scott forecast the the SPX would close the year at 1265, which was the closest prediction (by a hair!).

Congrats, Scotty. You win a great dinner at the fine LA steakhouse Mastro's. Just let me know when you'll be in town to collect.

On the bond side, the closest prediction for where the 10-year Treasury yield would end the year came from SeaBreeze Partner's Doug Kass, who was the only participant to forecast anything with a 3-handle on it (his forecast was 3.00% vs. 3.30% actual). Nice job, Doug.

Overall, the average forecast for 2010 was SPX 1200, for a gain of 7.7%. The actual gain for the year came in at 12.8%, so our pollsters were a tad conservative in their outlooks.

I don't yet have the final predictions in for my 2011 poll, but hope to have it completed by the end of the week. So check back to see how our fearless forecasters see 2011 shaping up.


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