Monday, January 10, 2011

Monday Morning Musings

The market is trading lower in early trading, taking its cues from overseas markets. Asian markets were lower overnight, with China down -1.7% and Indonesia falling -4% on inflation concerns. Europe is lower this morning amid continuing concerns over the sovereign debt issues in Spain, Portugal, etc.

Economically speaking, there has been no data to come out this morning to speak of. There was one merger deal, with Duke Energy (DUK) buying Progress Energy (PGN) for $13.7 billion.

The dollar is lower today, which is boosting commodities. Oil prices are up just above the $89 level, and gold is a tad higher near $1370.

The 10-year yield is lower to 3.29%; and the volatility index is spiking 6.2% higher to 18.20.

Most stocks are lower this morning, with energy stocks down the most, and consumer staples down the least. Apple (AAPL) is bucking the weakness so far, and trading up near $340. A handful of other tech stocks are positive also. But that's about it. Financials are mixed, while energy and materials stocks look lower across the board.

Trading comment: The market soldoff a few times last week, but each time it basically rallied back by the close to narrow its losses. This must be frustrating to the bears, who are looking for a bigger pullback. The market is still concerned with the sovereign debt issues in Europe, but it certainly hasn't led to a ton of selling. This could mean that instead of a deeper pullback, the market merely consolidates in more of a sideways fashion as it works off the recent gains. I still think we pullback a little bit more, if only to work off the extreme bullish sentiment that had built up in the market. But right now, the SPX 1250 level could provide initial support, if we even get there.

long AAPL, VIX calls


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