Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Stocks Pause After Three Day Run

The market is lower in early trading after putting together a nice three day run. The rub on the recent rally is that volume has been very light. You really want to see the opposite. You want to see markets rally on strong volume and pullback on lighter volume.

There isn't much in the way of market moving economic data this morning, so most of this is just profit taking.

The dollar is up a bit this morning, which could be weighing on commodities. Oil prices have pulled back below $101, and gold prices are also down, near $1506. Silver prices are down sharply as well.

Macy's (M) reported very strong earnings and raised guidance, and its stock is sharply higher today. I think the general public thinks retailers are hurting since consumers are strapped for cash, but many retailers have reported better-than-expected earnings. Although we can't count Disney (DIS) among them, as they reported disappointing earnings and the stock is lower.

Asian markets were mixed overnight, with China reporting another increase in inflation. The 10-year yield is higher to 3.21%; and the VIX is up 2% to 16.33.

Trading comment: Energy and material stocks are seeing the most selling pressure this morning, as are the related commodities (oil, gas, etc). These stocks have been volatile lately, and I think their recent leadership in the market is likely to pause for awhile while other sectors take the lead. I think tech still looks good, and the one sector that could be a wildcard is financials, since sentiment is so bearish there and no one is looking for anything good from financials right now.


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