Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Early Look: Q2 GDP Revised Lower

The market is under a bit of selling pressure in early trading after briefly bouncing into positive territory. The concerns out of Europe persist, and the failure by the Super Committee to do anything regarding the U.S. deficit hasn't helped sentiment.

Bond yields are slightly higher in Europe as the bond vigilantes continue to pressure those governments. The cost of insurance in the CDS market also continues to rise, not just in Europe but emerging market CDS prices are also moving up.

In economic data, the second revision of Q2 GDP was revised down to 2.0% from an initial estimate of 2.5%. There is not much else in the way of corporate and economic news this morning.

Asian markets were mixed overnight and Europe is actually higher this morning on bargain hunting. Oil prices are up near $98 and gold prices are higher to $1700 after getting hit hard yesterday.

The 10-year yield is flat near 1.96%; and the VIX is down a little to 32.55, fading back below its 50-day average.

Trading comment: With the SPX now below its 50-day average as well as its 200-day, traders will move to an even more defensive posture. The news backdrop is very negative right now, and that should push investor sentiment back towards the bearish side of the ledger. While there are few stocks breaking out here, this could be a good time to go back and look at those stocks that were breaking out after reporting earnings and have now pulled back. When the market does find its footing, those names will likely be the first to start moving higher again.

1 Comments:

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