Wednesday, November 21, 2012

US Stocks Open Flat Despite Overnight Bounce in Asia

US stock markets are hovering near the flat line in early trading.  There hasn't been too much news, and I would expect that trading today would be relatively light ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.  On Friday the market will only be open a half day.

In economic news, the Univ of Mich consumer sentiment survey for November slid to 82.7 from its preliminary reading of 84.9.  The latest weekly jobless claims figures totaled 410,000 which is down from last week's total of 451,000.

Overnight Asian markets rallied despite some weak Japan trade figures.  The latest traded data from Japan showed exports from Japan to China fell -11.6% and exports to Europe slumped -20.1%.

European markets are mixed to lower today after a bit of delay between the EU and IMF on agreeing to release the next tranche of aid to Greece.

In the Middle East, talks yesterday of a cease fire appear to be a bit premature as fighting continues.  a bus bomb exploded in Tel Aviv this morning killing 21 people.

Commodities are mixed as the dollar is relatively flat.  Oil prices are up a bit to $87.45 and gold prices are also a touch higher near $1725.  Copper prices are more than 1% lower on the day.

The 10-year yield is up again to 1.68%.  Its overhead 50-day resistance comes into play around 1.70%.  And the VIX is down fractionally below the 15 level. 

Trading comment: The market bent a little yesterday but was able to bounce back into the close and end in positive territory.  So far the pattern of consolidation after the strong 2-day rally looks normal.  But I would like to see the market push through to some more upside soon to keep these rally hopes alive.  I still feel like sentiment is fragile at this juncture and if the bulls don't keep their pedal on the gas this market could roll over again.  Volume levels today and Friday should be light and hopefully the bears have left early for their holiday festivities.


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