Friday, June 30, 2006

Silly Rebalancing Colors The Closing Minutes

I hate these days when the people at Russell decide to rebalance their indexes. I don't know why they have to do it on quarter end. They should just pick a random day during the week, since it doesn't matter to them anyway.

If you look at any of the intraday charts of the really large cap stocks, you will see plunges across the board in the last ten minutes. From PG to XOM, AMGN to MSFT, they all were artificially sold down in the final minutes. Silly.

This also made the volume look much bigger than it really was, so I wouldn't focus too much on today's volume levels.

But the indexes gave back little of yesterday's strong rally, which is a plus. Now we have to see if the market can build on its gains next week.

As for bond yields, the 10-year yield continued to plunge today. Since hitting 5.25% on Wednesday, the 10-year has fallen more than 10 basis points in the last 2 days (5.14%). With all of the bonds along the yield curve now below the fed funds rate, the bond market is giving a strong signal that the Fed has done enough for the time being. Don't overdo it.

Overall, this was a solid week. I think stocks should continue to rally. With oil rising again, energy stocks will likely continue to be at the forefront. But if we can get some more groups to join in, that would help sustain the rally.

long all stocks mentioned

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