Monday, July 17, 2006

Commodities Rolling Over

After a brief dip into the red this morning, the major indexes are struggling to stay in positive territory. Small and mid-caps are still down on the day.

The dollar is rebounding strongly today, and that is weighing on all commodity-related investments. Oil is down nearly $2 to $75.25, natural gas is down, and precious metals are under pressure as well.

This is causing energy-related stocks to come under heavy selling. But it hasn't really spilled over onto the broader market as it has in many past trading sessions. Techs are still fairly strong, financials are up, as are many healthcare issues.

The put/call ratios are elevated today, as bearish sentiment continues to build. Last week, the AAII sentiment index registered more bears than bulls for the 9th consecutive week. This is rare, and often coincides with a market bottom. But, as we have witnessed, bottoms can be a frustrating and painful process.

I expect to start seeing some new breakouts and leadership emerge soon.

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