Back-to-Back Reversals

Today was shaping up to be a really nice day - at least it was for a while. After the opening spike, the market drifted lower only to find support and surge back to new highs. The SPX rose above yesterday's highs, and it looked as though it might challenge last week's highs.

But as I have said, and it is not always a popular statement, this market is not hard to push around. And it seems anyone with an agenda to knock the market lower has been able to do so without much difficutly lately. Although you could also argue there has not been a lot of downside follow through either.

Nonetheless, the selling this afternoon left another outside negative reversal in the charts. I can't remember the last time I saw back-to-back outside days, but it seems like a pretty bearish development. And I have raised more cash to reflect this stance.

Volume also rose on both exchanges, making for a 2nd distribution day. Don't you wish you were going on vacation in August?

The put/call ratios were both high today, and the Investor's Intelligence poll showing more bears and less bulls than last week. I still think that this prolonged build in negative sentiment is going to lead to a huge rally at some point. We just need to get through this near-term malaise once again.

Interestingly, while the stock market is highly pessimistic, the corporate bond market is quite sanguine. And that is what makes this market so different from 2001-02. The tone of the corporate bond market suggests that stocks will move back to new highs. But again, timing is the key.