Thursday, November 30, 2006

Disappointing Economic Data Weighs on Market

The market has come under just a bit of pressure in early trading. The bulk of the retailiers reported November sales this morning, and for the most part the reports were a little disappointing (more on that in a later post).

The Chicago PMI was weak at 49.9, which further weighed on the market. This sign of economic weakness is also pushing bond yields lower, with the 10-year back at 4.48%.

If weakness in the manufacturing sector persists, it could pressure the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later. Before today, the fed funds futures were predicting roughly a 50% chance of a rate cut by March.

Oil is higher again today, briefly touching the $63 level. This is likely also keeping a lid on the rest of the market, save for the energy stocks.

I would prefer to see the market chop around in a sideways fashion for a little while, before another push higher into year-end.

In other news and notes:
  • Clothing retailers mentioned negatively in Barron's
  • Asian markets up strongly overnight
  • TIVO downgraded to Sell at Oppenheimer
  • NVLS downgraded to Sell at Stifel
  • Needham raises AAPL tgt to $115
  • TGT Nov. sales increase +5.9% (vs. +5.7%)
  • DGIN up +16%, to be acquired by INTU
  • SNPS raises guidance; stock higher
  • Cingular announces availability of BlackBerry Pearl (RIMM)
  • SCSS lowers guidance; gaps lower
  • Algerian oil minister says OPEC likely to decide to cut output in December
  • OFHEO says US house prices +7.7% in Q3 vs. year-ago

long AAPL


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