Monday, March 12, 2007

Investor Sentiment Check

Last week, we saw some record readings in the put/call ratios. And so far today, there does not seem to be any letup in the bearish put buying.

The CBOE put/call has been above 1.0 all day. And the ISEE has been equally as bearish, trading below the 100 level throughout the day.

Also, the ARMS Index has been elevated, hovering above 1.15.

I continue to believe that while this buildup in bearish put buying may not immediately lead to a rally to new highs, it will help build a foundation underneath the market. And when this correction does finally run its course, the reversal in sentiment will help drive another powerful rally.

Tech is leading the way today, with the semis up +1.2%. Brokers have also reversed their early weakness, and are now up for the day. Only the homebuilder group is still negative for this session.

Oil has broken below the $59 level, although you wouldn't know this if you were going by the prices at the pumps in LA. I saw $3.30 this morning. Dag.

2 Comments:

At 6:27 PM, Blogger Louis said...

I don't know much about smart money, and their actions & motives(intentions). But it seems individual investors sentiment has very little to do with market direction. It sure seems what SM does is the only thing changing the trend, reversing. Lately whenever I see churning with heavy volume on a leading stocks, I picture GS suits sovling their inventory over to retails. So the rally comes after the shovling, more shovling I guess... This idea of legally sound pump & dump, I picked up from Bill O'neil...smart man...

 
At 9:52 AM, Blogger J. Kahn said...

These put/call ratios are heavily influence by hedge funds, etc. So depending on if you think they're "smart money" or not, they are still worth paying attention to.

 

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