Friday, July 27, 2007

GDP Report A Bit Better Than Expected

The market opened lower again this morning, but has since rallied back to positive territory. An advance Q2 GDP report today showed the economy bounced back to a +3.4% pace (vs. +3.2% consensus). Additionally, the inflation component of the report ticked in at +2.7% vs. consensus estimates of +3.4%. So there were some positive datapoints there.

There is some talk that KKR could pull their expected IPO, due to the market jitters. While some will say its entirely due to what's going on in the bond market, don't discount how Blackstone (BX) has fared since coming public. The stock hit $38 the day it opened, and today trades at $24. Not a very good showing.

Asian got walloped overnight, taking its cue from our markets. S. Korea and Tawain were hit the hardest, both down over -4%. I suspect this will likely be another good opportunity to add exposure to some of these Asian markets.

Oil is trading higher this morning, back up over $76. And the 10-year yield fell all the way to its 200-day moving average before bouncing. It is trading near 4.80%.

I suspect today will be a mixed day, as most won't want to get aggressively long ahead of the weekend. But next week I believe we should see a nice bounce from oversold levels. It will also be month end, which sometimes favors money being put to work.


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