Consumer Confidence Jumps

With all of the negative news in the media, you would think that consumers would simply remain downbeat until they see clearer signs of job growth, a housing rebound, and an improvement in Europe. But today's consumer confidence number was a big surprise.

Stock futures were barely higher prior to its release, but jumped afterwards. The Consumer Confidence Index for November spiked to 56.0 from 39.8 the prior month. Moreover, consensus estimates were only for 42.5. So that is a nice bounce in consumer sentiment, and could be play into solid holiday sales which began with a strong Black Friday for retailers.

Asian markets were higher across the board overnight after the strong rally here in the U.S. And Europe is higher this morning despite rumors that S&P might be looking at France's sovereign debt rating for a possible downgrade.

In corporate news, Tiffany (TIF) gave disappointing guidance and its stock is getting hit. Also, AMR has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will being a reorganization. Silly airlines.

The 10-year yield is higher to 2.04%; the dollar is lower, helping commodities; oil prices are up near $99.50, and gold prices are slightly higher to $1715; as for the VIX, it is down another 2.25% to 31.40, but even at a level above 31 traders are expecting continued high levels of volatility. The VIX hasn't been below 25 for more than a day since early August.

Trading comment: I said yesterday that I felt the market was very oversold, sentiment had grown more bearish, and the market should be able to add to yesterday's bounce. I still feel that way, even though volume yesterday was nothing to write home about. The SPX has been in this trading range of roughly 1150-1250 for a couple months, and could stay there. If so, then current levels are roughly at the halfway point of said trading range. In this environment, the best strategy continues to be buying the dips and selling big rallies. You have to take small profits when you have them, otherwise you are simply riding the waves up and down but never making much progress.