Monday, July 17, 2006

Energy Tanks Without Taking Down The Market

The market finished down slightly, judging by the SPX. The COMP was flat, while mid- and small-caps underperformed today. Volume eased from Friday's levels, and slowed as the day progressed.

Breadth was negative, and measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher. Energy definitely was hit the hardest, the the XLE off -3.2%. But unlike previous days, it did not take the whole market down with it. Defensive stocks fared the best, things like beverages, drugs, etc.

There was continued bombing in the Middle East today, but the market finally seemed to shrug this off also. I am hearing that the surgical strikes from Israel could be winding down sooner rather than later, so barring any unforseen escalation, I anticipate further calming out of the region.

Most investors are not very optimistic about the upcoming earnings season. That likely means that if we get just a few better-than-expected reports, it could spark a rally. The markets are now back to oversold levels, though just barely on the NYSE (oscillator).

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