Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Selloff Picks Up Steam

The selloff is accelerating over the last 20 minutes. All of the major indexes are now down more than 1%, with small-caps being hit the hardest.

Brokers have turned sharply lower also (-2.5%), despite the good earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS). Retailers are also down -1.7%, while energy stocks are among the few that are higher on the day.

As you would expect, the fear indicators are spiking once again:
  • The ARMS Index hit 1.73
  • The VIX is surging +18% higher
  • The ISEE Index is low at 93
  • The CBOE put/call is above 1.0 for the 15th straight day; currently 1.36

It looks like we may be headed for a retest of the lows, a scenario I mentioned and have prepared for by raising cash. Of course, a lot of people are looking for this same scenario, which made me a bit nervous. I don't like being part of the consensus. So this could mean that the pullback won't go as far as many think. Too early to say.

long GS


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