Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Chalk Up A Nice One For The Bears

The bears really had their way with the market today. Spread the rumors that subprime is worse than most people think, and that it will tank the economy. Then sell the futures down hard to knock the market. And voila, a well executed bear raid.

The SPX fell roughly -2.0%, while the small-cap RUT fell -2.6%. Brokers were hit the hardest, falling -4.5% as a group, followed by homebuilders (-3.6%), banks (-3.2%), retailers (-2.4%), and industrials (-2.1%).

The market was so weak, that even oil reversed its gains and fell on the day. It closed below $58. The 10-year yield also fell below 4.50%, which should help liquidity, but not so much today.

So this is the retest. And it feels awful, just like they always do. If you have ever looked back at a good buying opportunity in hindsight and wondered why you didn't buy everything in sight, it's because on days like today, who feels like buying? Answer: No one.


At 4:45 PM, Blogger Louis said...

Thanks for the explantion of pc ratio, I hope your boy is doing well. I had to see mine not only going under w/ mask on but also needlw jabbing into his ankle searching for a vein, rage...was only emotion I remember... So I felt your pain. I am poorly educated in economics, and mostly self taught & read, so please excuse my ignorance.
I can, most of the time reflect what I see around me, and around Fullerton where I live, price lowering of the homes are very slowly progressing. But the sellers are still holding their position firmly, and deal rarely goes thru. And buyers are dabbing with ridiculous offers down to insulting level. Then there was anarticle in florida paper quoting disgruntled realtors blaming sellers for not lowering the prices leading to stalemate. I do not think the beat on the street is about sub-prime at all... It is but a fuse getting closer to the main body of over expanded housing market cooling, now, because the flame from the fuse is so bright, body doesn,t appear so threatening.......


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